Travis County Commissioners Court
May 24, 2005
Item 28
Item number 28 is to receive and discuss first revenue estimate for fiscal year 2006 budget process.
>> good afternoon, judge, Commissioners. I’m blaine keith with the auditor's office. We have for you this afternoon the first revenue estimate for the '06 budget process. As in the past, it's the general fund only. It's very broad. The intent is just to give you and planning and budget a general idea of how much we think you're going to have for resources given a number of assumptions. We've done it as we've done it in the past. We calculate the ending balance for '05 and then we carry that over and make our first estimate for '06. The general fund balance going into may was 148.4 million. Obviously we've gotten most of our revenue for the year, most of the taxes are in. We're anticipating about another 26.2 million this year to give us total new revenue of just a little under 285 million. Pbo works with us on this, and of course they forecast the expenditures, and they're looking at about another 132.3 million in expenditures this fiscal year. That would give us an ending balance of a little more than $42.3 million going into fiscal '06. For new revenue for next year, we're using the effective tax rate pbo asked us to use that one, that's 37.98 cents for the m and o portion. That's about .52 cents less than the current m and o rate. And that would give us about $236.25 million in tax revenue for next year. For the other revenues, which obviously is everything except current property taxes, we're using the same process we have in the past. We're taking what we're forecasting for this year, not what we're budgeting, but what we're forecasting, and amending it as we know things that we're not going to be looking for next year in the budget and we'll be adding a few things back that we're anticipating this year that we're not forecasting next year. After we did all that it came out to pretty much the same number. For one thing, this year planning and budget was able to give us a preliminary list of the transfers they're anticipating into the general fund, not from the corporations or anything like that, but some of the regular ones we tend to have. So other revenues are pretty much the same as what we're forecasting for this year, just a little less than 56 million. So right now we're looking at you're having new revenues next year of about $292 million. When you add that to the beginning balance you will have about 334.3 million, based on all the assumptions we're making right now. That's a little bit less than the current budget on a budget to budget basis, it's down about 3.3 million. That's not unusual in our first estimate. Quite often it is less than the current budget. Sort of in summary, what we're looking at now is taxes will be a little higher next year, other revenues about the same. The reason the total revenue will be down is that you're beginning balance is down. We had a budgeted balance -- beginning balance this year of about 50.4 million. Right now we're looking at 42.3. That's certainly not out of line with what you had in the recap of the budget where you thought you would end up. So right now it's saying you have a little smaller budget. Of course, we're being very conservative at this point, forecasting revenues. I’m sure pbo is going just the other way of expenditures if they think there's any chance that it will be spend. They're throwing it in there, so their expenditure number is probably on the high side. But that's where we think we are right now just to give you the proverbial ballpark, we think you're looking at about $334.4 million to start your general fund process. We think that's where you'll be for next year. Obviously a lot of things from here on out will change. But that's our best shot at the moment. And we'll be glad to answer any questions if you have any on this. Questions?
>> thank you very much. Appreciate it.
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Last Modified:
Wednesday, May 25, 2005 7:48 AM